I’m a big fan of Umair Haque as a strategist. Whether you know it or not, Haque’s insight has influenced something you’ve read or thought. But I continue to scratch my head when people, Haque included, talk about how News Corporation’s flirtation with blocking Google from indexing its content is certain folly.
In his article today on Harvard Business, “Why Big Media’s Anti-Google Counter-Revolution Will Fail” Haque argues that News Corp’s move will assuredly crash and burn.
While he may be right, he may also prove wrong. Two things we both agree on: News Corp is most likely posturing, and even if the threat is credible they will have a hard time blocking all of the blogs and Tweets that repost their material. Owing to the last problem, Google would still be the beneficiary of free News Corp content. But that could conceivably be solved by blocking inbound links from anything coming to its sites from Google. While that action would be counter to the free information economy, if I want to read an article badly enough I would assuredly go to Bing to get the content, even if I found it on Google. Force me to do that enough, and I (begrudgingly) switch to Bing for search. And on that point, Haque is also correct — “thick value” must be created. News must get better at doing more than re-hashing material every other month, and it must find a way to create value in society.
But if the industry did that, this deal would be all the more conceivable because the content in question would be even more enticing.
Again, I am not arguing that Haque is wrong. I’m simply saying that no one can say with absolute certainty that this deal would not be disruptive to Google’s fortunes. While Bing and News Corp alone may not be a strong enough couple, Ask.com, Bing, and Yahoo teamed with The New York Times, AP, News Corp, CNN, et al. would pose a bigger problem for Google. When I research topics, I except results from these organizations. And based on that recognition, part of me thinks that the news industry has a right to ask Google for a share of the advertising party it has in some sense monopolized.
What Microsoft and Newscorp do have is huge advertising spends. The former could shift its focus to a campaign splash saying that the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Fox News, etc can now only be found on Bing. Some people would be indifferent, some enraged, and some responsive. And I’m not alone in thinking this could pose a problem — internet entrepreneur Jason Calacanis also sees the move as conceivably game changing (here).
As for the ethical considerations, to date Google has not stepped up to promise to bankroll one reporter’s salary. That means ultimately these organizations fail on their on, and in the face of declining ad revenues, must try to survive on their own. And that’s an increasingly daunting prospect. What’s the “greater good” if serious and venerable news organizations evaporate into the ether?
That’s why this move is not as nutty or wrong as say, making Tom from MySpace rich beyond his wildest dreams.